This conflict will not be easily alleviated. The situation at the border is showing no signs of abating. Negotiations are underway at various levels, but no talks have been fruitful since the bloody clashes in the Galwan Valley on Monday night. As a result, both sides are ready to face any situation. From Ladakh to Arunachal Pradesh, almost the entire LAC (Line of Actual Control) is being mobilized on both sides. If the conflict is to escalate, then it is not too late to escalate. Just waiting for ‘acclimatization’.
What is this acclimatization? The word adaptation means coping up to a new environment. The area that borders India and China is much higher than sea level. It is not possible to adapt to that environment, it takes time. And the process of adapting to that height for that particular period of time is called acclimatization.
India and China are now gathering troops on both sides of the LAC. It is not possible for those who are going to that height from flat or low area to start a war immediately. It will take time to adapt perfectly to the height and environment. With the passage of time, however, the heat of the situation may increase.
When India-China met in Doklam, the tug-of-war lasted for 63 days. This time not that much of time has passed yet. But this time the tension is much higher, a lot of big things have happened. As long as the two forces were facing each other in Doklam, there was no possibility of an armed conflict. At least we didn't go down without explaining ourselves first. But this time the situation is much different. The manner in which China has betrayed, the way in which it has ignored the decision taken at the corps commander level meeting, and the way in which it has attacked the unarmed Indian forces with thorny sticks and khukris has intensified resentment among Indian forces. Not that the Indian forces did not retaliate that night. There are also reports of casualties on the Chinese side. But how intense the retaliation against China was that night is no longer important to the military. The forces want to respond to the betrayal. We think that the government will give that opportunity to the forces.
I am not saying that a full-scale war is going to break out between India and China. But it is no secret that China is preparing to respond militarily. The news that the army mobilization in LAC is increasing rapidly is in all the media. No one gathers these troops unnecessarily. China is also increasing the army of LAC and Pare, so India must also increase its army, for self-defense — this theory is correct. But it is also true that sufficient forces or equipment are deployed at the border throughout the year for self-defense or to stop the aggression of the enemy. So if the policy is only defensive, then there is no need to mobilize so many troops. The rapid increase in the number of troops on the border, the way in which India is increasing its heavy weapons, equipment and logistics, is a sign of great readiness.
But This preparation of military activity was extremely urgent. I repeat, the resentment within the forces is now intense. India has launched a series of diplomatic battles in the international arena to respond to the Galwan incident. The pressure to push China economically and commercially has also begun. But thanks to a long stay in the force and having witnessed multiple full-scale battles, I can say that the force now seeks a military remedy as well. However, the government does not decide what the forces want or do not want. And any disciplined force is bound to obey the decision of the government. But in the way that Delhi has signaled to all three forces to be ready to deal with any situation after Galwan's attack, it seems to me that the government wants to give dignity to the will of the forces.
Which way the situation is going to turn in the end, it will be clear but it will not take long. Whether limited or larger, if China has to respond militarily, it will do so very soon. China now wants to end the conflict. At least that's what Beijing spokesmen say. It is the nature of the Chinese to do the exact opposite of what they say. Therefore, India is assuming that there may be betrayal again. He is also preparing to deal with it. But Indian forces are also seeking a quick response to the betrayal that took place on Monday night. It is also important to respond quickly. Because in all these situations, more time cannot be allowed to pass. If you retaliate after many days have passed, that retaliation is not so significant. So if our forces give the answer to China's military question in military language, then we hope to give it very soon. Waiting just to adapt.
The goal of the force, which is deployed at the border all year round, is defensive. That is to protect the borders of the country, to stop the dishonest activities of the opponents. And the kind of move India is thinking of now is aggressive. In other words, if the Chinese forces do not agree to retreat from the Galwan Valley and the Finger-4 area, then counter-aggression will be shown in several other areas. There are many areas between Ladakh and Arunachal Pradesh which are geographically more convenient for India. China is in an unfavorable position in those areas. I think India can take offensive action in all those sectors. In other words, if you do not agree to leave my land to move, then where your wall is weak, I will strike there, enter your area and sit hinged.
The question is, how long will it take to take this step? To answer this question, I would say first, it is not tourism. Tourists return with light walks, which leads to illness or weakness among many. In the case of the jawans, however, the task is much more difficult. Maximum physical fitness is essential to fight. That is why it is not possible to fight by suddenly climbing that high mountain. One has to adapt to the environment and the situation and gradually reach full physical capacity. That is why the soldiers have to acclimatize.
The time frame for adaptation depends on how high the force is being taken. If the troops are taken above 9,000 feet, it takes 7 days to adapt. If you go above 11,000 feet, you need another 7 days, that is, 14 days. And if you have to fight at an altitude of 13,000 feet or more, then at least 21 days go to acclimatization.
Arunachal Pradesh, which borders China, has low altitudes in some sectors. Tawang is less than 9,000 feet high. The height of Bomdila is less than 6 thousand. Mechuka is only four thousand feet. There is no need to adapt to those areas. But Sela Pass is 13 thousand 60 feet high. As a result, it will take at least 21 days for the newly arrived forces to adapt to the area.
The height of Daulat Beg Oldi area of Ladakh is about 18,000 feet. Nathu La Sector in Sikkim is more than 14,000 feet high. In all these areas, it may take 21 days for acclimatization. In some areas of Uttarakhand, however, it will take a little less time. Mana village is strategically important for India, a very important border. Army rallies are also taking place there. However, the average height of the area is about 10 thousand feet. So it will take more than a week for the forces to adapt.
All in all, the preparations are complete only if the newly deployed forces adapt. At any moment after that, India can speak to China in military language. It is not that China is not preparing for retaliation. They are also preparing vigorously. The Red Army is also judging what India can and cannot do. But not everything can be prevented at all times by various judgments and analyzes. In areas where China is weak due to geographical or geographical reasons, it will be very difficult for China to stop India from becoming aggressive.
- in the view of Colonel Soumitra Roy (Retd.)
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